The offshore wind industry is growing rapidly, with over 850GW of capacity expected to be installed globally by 2050. This is underpinned by global commitments to reduce carbon emissions and by improving the cost efficiency of wind as an energy source.
In line with this rapid expansion, the number of vessels required to support offshore wind developments throughout their operational life will also require major growth. Here at ORE Catapult, we have conducted analysis to determine the size of the market for operations and maintenance (O&M) vessels, based on global installed capacity targets.
There continues to be some uncertainty in this market, largely in relation to the timelines for these large and complex infrastructure projects, evolving strategies for larger and further from shore sites, and evolving concepts of how traditional operations and maintenance approaches will integrate with floating wind. To reflect this, as well as our ‘Central Case’ we have also included ‘High Case’ and ‘Low Case’ scenarios. Up to 2050, strategies centred on Crew Transfer Vessels (CTVs) and Service Operation Vessels (SOVs) are expected to be employed. Globally, this could equate to up to 2325 CTVs and 423 SOVs in operation by 2050.
If you focus purely on the UK rather than the global picture, the growth trend is similar, up to 223 CTVs and 79 SOVs could be required in operation by 2050. Our method of assessment for the UK market also considers a comparison with firm projects announced for 2035, assuming each farm of distance over 30km from shore employs a combined CTV and SOV strategy. We see this approach deviating slightly from the MW target-based forecast, but our market model assumes both that CTVs and SOVs are typically required earlier than project start date (i.e. during construction) and also that there may be a delay in full operation of some of the farms currently expected to be operational by 2030.
The major assumptions of our modelling include:
For more information about our market model please contact Molly Isaacs: email@example.com